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The analytics-driven Eagles have an edge over the Chiefs in fourth-down decision making

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have been the league's best team at converting on fourth down.Justin Casterline/Getty

If the Super Bowl comes down to a key fourth-down decision, that might bode well for the the Philadelphia Eagles.

The analytically inclined Eagles have long been one of the NFL’s most aggressive organizations when it comes to the crucial fourth-down calls.

Those decisions helped fuel the team’s first Super Bowl title five years ago under coach Doug Pederson and helped Philadelphia get back to the title game this season under his successor Nick Sirianni thanks to two key fourth-down conversions in the first half of the NFC title game against San Francisco.

The Eagles have converted more fourth downs than any other team in the regular season and playoffs combined, despite playing from ahead more than any other team this season.


“We have confidence,” Sirianni said. “When you go for it on fourth down, you put yourself in those scenarios all week. We have so many meetings about that, of what we’re going to do in these scenarios, calls we might call, what we would call if we’ve already called that and everything like that. You put yourself through those calls, but at the end of the day, you make the decision because you trust the people that are out there doing the job.”

Sirianni ranked No. 1 this season the Football Outsiders’ Critical Call Index, while his Kansas City counterpart Andy Reid ranked 28th.

The analytics company has one of the best models for determining when NFL teams should go and when they should kick on fourth downs, using its win probability model that relies on historical play-by-play data adjusted for variables such as the strength and weaknesses of both teams, injuries and other factors.

The Eagles have converted a league-best 25 fourth-down tries and an impressive clip of 71.4%. While much of that success has come in short-yardage situations where quarterback Jalen Hurts has thrived on sneaks that feature teammates giving him a legal push from behind — converting 27 of 31 runs on third or fourth-and-1 — the Eagles also have had success with more traditional plays.


Hurts converted a fourth-and-3 on a deep pass to DeVonta Smith on the opening drive last week against San Francisco to set up a touchdown.

“I’d say the biggest part about it is the trust the coaches have in the players and the players have in the coach,” tight end Dallas Goedert said. “If we get on the other side of the field, we know it’s four-down territory.”

Raiders bring in Scott Turner

Former Commanders offensive coordinator Scott Turner is joining Josh McDaniels’s staff with the Raiders, likely helping oversee the passing game.

The 40-year-old Turner was the Commanders’ offensive coordinator the last three seasons before he was fired Jan. 10. Washington ranked 20th in total offense, 21st in passing and 24th in scoring this season.

Scott Turner spent the last three seasons as the Commanders' offensive coordinator.Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Turner, the son of longtime former NFL offensive coordinator and head coach Norv Turner, oversaw eight quarterbacks during his time with the Commanders. Their offense was ranked in the bottom half of the league all three seasons.

Joining the Raiders represents a little bit of a homecoming for Turner, who was a backup quarterback at UNLV in 2003 and 2004 and still has a Las Vegas area code for his phone number.

Learn CPR at the Super Bowl

Inspired by the lifesaving medical attention Damar Hamlin received on the field during a game last month, the NFL and American Heart Association will provide free CPR education in Arizona throughout Super Bowl week as part of the NFL Experience at the Phoenix Convention Center.


Hamlin, the 24-year-old Buffalo Bills defensive back, needed to be resuscitated after making a tackle in a game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Bills assistant athletic trainer Denny Kellington performed CPR on Hamlin on the field.

“Being able to deliver care in emergency situations is not just important at sporting events, but in all walks of life,” NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said in a statement.

People who visit the mobile training unit will receive hands-only CPR training from experts and receive CPR information that can be shared in their communities. Also, the American Heart Association is working with Hamlin and his #3forHeart CPR Challenge, a social media initiative that encourages people to learn CPR, spread the word, and donate money to support CPR research, education, and training.